Week 1: The Journey Begins

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Brodie Croyle... for absolutely no reason at all

Saj: When I was a young(er) man I placed a bet (legally) on the New England Patriots to cover the spread in Super Bowl XXXVIII against the Carolina Panthers.  Well they didn’t.  But thankfully I placed that bet while I was in England.  And the English know very little about American football point spreads.

The moral of the story?  Place bets on American football games in a shady William Hill in the East End of London whose employees are either 16 and don’t care or just drunk all the time.

That was the only time I’ve ever bet on football.  Which is a good thing, really.  Because I’m not very good at it.  Ian and I have been doing a football picks blog for a less than comprehensive two years.  And now we start again, somewhat more ambitiously: all the games with points spreads.  And, of course, none of that bothersome analysis you get from everywhere else.

Ian: What Saj failed to mention, not at all surprisingly, was how I consistently bested him in NFL Picks on our old website.  What he expects, incredibly, is that moving to bigger and better things (WordPress) from crap and crappier things (BlogSpot) will shift Mr. Momentum to his side.  Now, despite my dangling modifier, be assured that Mr. Momentum will be neither on Saj’s nor Mr. Momentum’s side.  See, Mr. Momentum is a major schizo.  You knew it all along, you just didn’t want to believe it.  But it’s true.

Anyway, Mr. Momentum’s psychosis aside, Saj is well aware that he is thoroughly outclassed here.  Don’t get him started on the 2006-2007 season, when I finished seven games up on him despite us only picking four games a week.

Now, after taking the second half of last season off licking his wounds, Saj wants to bring back Pick ‘Em, now bigger and better than ever.  Picking all the games each week?  Bring it on, Saj.

Week One

(favorites in CAPS)

Washington Redskins (+4) at NEW YORK GIANTS

Saj: I don’t have that much time for this post because I’m actually about to leave to attend the season opener, but I’ll say this: I didn’t hate Eli Manning until his no good brother pulled him into his sponsorship orbit with that hard to watch homo-incestual “Oreo Double Stuff” ad campaign.  Kissing Suzy Kolber were coy with it, so I’ll ignore the fact that the term “Oreo Double Stuff” is overflowing with porn imagery.  I’ll just leave it up to your dirty little imaginations and Google.  Anyway even without Osi Umenyiora, the defending Super Bowl Champions* will cover against first year coach Jim Zorn and the best runningback in football named Clinton: Clinton Portis.  GIANTS

Ian: There are few gambling rules that I religiously follow, but one is Always Take the Defending Superbowl Champions* If They Are Opening the Entire NFL Season At Home in Primetime.  I call it the ATtDSCITAOtENFLSAHiP rule.  GIANTS

(We’ll update the rest by football Sunday.  Check back in at the end of each work week throughout the NFL season!)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Saj: After legally changing his name to Chad Javon Ocho Cinco, the receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson will finally be permitted to wear “Ocho Cinco” on the back of his jersey without fear of fine or suspension.  This is a happy day for Chad.  And a sad day for curmudgeons (I’m looking at you, Goodell).  I really want to pick against the Bengals here, but the Ravens are in no shape right now to win a game they should otherwise win.  BENGALS

Ian: Bold Prediction #1: This is not an AFC Championship preview.  I’ll give you ten guesses as to who’s starting under center for the Ravens.  Twenty guesses!  Can’t do it?  It’s Joe Flacco!  Who?  Oh, no one, just one of the top five quarterbacks in Division I-AA last year, duhhhh!  Of course he’ll do well in his first NFL game.  He never got tired playing against the top college players in the country for the last four years.  Like that Carson Palmer guy.  Who cares about a Heisman Award against top college competition? BENGALS

NEW YORK JETS (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Saj: To only give the Dolphins three points in insanity.  Insanity, I say!  The Jets made some good moves this off season (Damien Woody, Alan Faneca, letting Justin McCareins go) and Brett Favre will be looking to justify his record jersey sales.  Meanwhile Rhodes Scholar finalist and girly-throwing Chad Pennington has a meager supporting cast.  By Week 4 Bill Parcel’s man-boobs will be started at Defensive Tackle.  JETS.

Ian: Remember the juice in Giants Stadium on Thursday night?  Well, it’s hopping on a Jet and heading south.  New York is pumped, Miami has Pennington (note: this is bad), the Jets cover.  JETS

Kansas City Chiefs (+16) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Saj: How often do you think Tom Brady sees the child he had with Bridget Moynihan?  My guess is that he telepathically speaks to him every night; imparting Super Bowl winning wisdom and slowly but surely teaching the young one how to pick up supermodels (very carefully, they’re alarmingly thin).  As for the game: I’m as big a homer as anybody, but giving 16 points to anyone in the first game of the season?  I don’t know about that.  CHIEFS

Ian: Saj nailed it.  Sixteen points in Week One is absurd, especially with the Pats’ O-line in shambles and a secondary that’s about as deep as a conversation with Paris Hilton. CHIEFS PLUS POINTS

Houston Texans (+6.5) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Saj: Rashard Mendenhall.  That’s a twenty-five cent name in a fifteen cent world.  I just made that up and I don’t know what that means.  STEELERS

Ian: This is my pick in Survivor football.  Week One’s are always tough in knock out pools (picking just one game a week correctly until you’re wrong, last one standing wins), but this one jumped out at me.  You have one the most consistently bad teams in the NFL playing on the road against one of the consistently good teams in the NFL.  I’m sold.  STEELERS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) at Tennessee Titans

Saj: Look, I love the idea of a quarterback who can run, a guy who can improvise on broken plays.  But it doesn’t always work in practice.  If Michael Vick is Exhibit A, Vince Young is Exhibit B minus all the dogfighting nonsense.  Bottom line: David Garrard > Tennessee defense.  JAGUARS

Ian: Tough one.  Jacksonville is good, they closed very strong last year, and they’re going to the playoffs.  However… Did you know these two teams squared off in Week One last year?  Well, they did.  In Jacksonville.  And Tennessee won.  Now they’re in Tennessee and Tennessee is getting points.  Let’s see if there’s anything to the whole “Learning from history” thing.  TITANS

DETROIT LIONS (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

Saj: The NFL should have hid this game in Week 17.  On the bright side, for at least one week one of these teams will have a winning record.  LIONS

Ian: Ha!  Funny game.  LIONS

Seattle Seahawks (+1) at BUFFALO BILLS

Saj: Since when are the Bills the favorite against a team that doesn’t rhyme with Bets or Wolphins?  These are unsettling times in these parts.  Unsettling indeed.  BILLS

Ian: Down years for these two teams.  Seattle is banged up in their receiving core and on their offensive line, they’ve lost one of the top running backs of the last few years (Shaun Alexander), and they’ve played more games than any other NFC team over the last four years.  I totally made that last part up but it seems right.  Anyway, Buffalo has stunk ever since stupidly letting go of Drew Bledsoe after he took them to the cusp of the playoffs in consecutive seasons in favor of JP Losman, a player summed up by espn.com’s saucy analysis: “He’ll kick off the season as Trent Edwards’ caddy, which is a pretty damning evaluation of his talent.”  In sum, Buffalo in a down year is a lot worse than Seattle in their down year.  I hate these 1 point spreads - they always feel like a pick ‘em - but I’ll take the point anyway.  SEAHAWKS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saj: I’m not as intrigued by the Jeremy Shockey signing as some.  Shockey is overrated.  Sure he can catch a pass, but he has very little interest in blocking.  Lucky for New Orleans, the Buccaneers aren’t very good.  At least I don’t think, I didn’t look this game up (or any other).  SAINTS

Ian: New Orleans is going to the Superbowl.  For the next two years.  Seriously. SAINTS

St. Louis Rams (+7.5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Saj: Steven Jackson was on my “Don’t Draft in the First Round List” so I steered clear of him.  Also on that list?  Everyone but Tom Brady.  But I had to settle for Portis which I was upset about a little.  As for the Eagles, it looks like Donovan McNabb and Bryant Westbrook are both healthy which is like seeing both Batman and Bruce Wayne in the same room.  EAGLES

Ian: St. Louis will be one of the five worst teams in the NFC.  Philadelphia will be one of the five best teams in the NFC.  The game is in Philadelphia.  Sometimes this isn’t too complicated.  Phily in a walk.  EAGLES

DALLAS COWBOYS (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns

Saj: Derek Anderson is coming off a concussion and Jamal Lewis is a year older (and probably a lot wiser since his time in prison but there’s no way of telling).  And more importantly the Dallas Cowboys are back.  Loads of talent and a competent coach.  Tony Romo has been improbably good and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to be.  Also, if there’s any owner who could put the fear of God in Pacman Jones, it’s Jerry Jones.  Like when Steinbrenner signed and reformed noted pedophile Jason Giambi.  COWBOYS

Ian: Romo.  Owens.  Pacman.  Jerry Jones.  Wade Philips.  Jessica Simpson.  The Cowboys are like a Red Giant star.  They’re burning really hot right now.  They’re huge.  They’re expanding.  You don’t want any piece of them if you want to live.  But they’re going to go nova any time now, and when that happens, watch out universe. COWBOYS

Carolina Panthers (+9) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Saj: Nine is a lot of points.  I know Ian likes the Chargers but I’m skeptical.  Skeptical like a fox!  CHARGERS

Ian: Nice line by Yahoo! here.  Nine is high, but all signs point to San Diego.  I mean, it’ll be emotional when they realize that Shawne Merriman is playing the last game of his career, right?  I’m feeling San Diego by 10.  CHARGERS

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Saj: The 49ers are what would come back up if you swallowed a urinal cake.  CARDINALS

Ian: It’s inexplicable, but I feel like these two teams are rivals.  They always seem to battle for “NFC Sleeper Team” at the beginning of the season, but they always end up battling for “NFC West Next-to-last” team by the end of it.  So, yeah, the Cardinals are supposed to be good, but as usual, they’re a crap shoot.  As are the Niners.  So take the home team plus the points. NINERS

Chicago Bears (+9.5) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Saj: Yes, I’m getting slightly more objective in my football picks.  But I’m allowing myself one indulgence: from time to time I will ignore reason and pick against Peyton Manning.  BEARS

Ian: Can you believe this is one year removed from being the Superbowl match up?  Crazy.  The Bears will average less points than any team in football this year, though, to be fair, part of that will be by design.  That is to say, the design of their team is such that their offense is terrible.  Manning won’t miss a beat, as for the first time in his life he’s experiencing a bit of a sibling rivalry.  He’ll be fine, especially in his home dome. COLTS

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS

Saj: Brett Favre carries storylines to two teams this year: the Jets and the Packers.  This game is a must win for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers.  Also, poor Aaron Rodgers.  He wanted to the be the starting quarterback two years ago but what do you say when Brett Favre wants to stick around?  Aside from “Trade me.”  PACKERS

Ian: Brett Favre usually plays the Vikings well at home, so I- heyyyy, wait a minute!  Is Brett Favre not on the Packers anymore?  When did this happen?  Was this on the news?  Did SportsCenter cover Favre at all this offseason?  I mean, you think it would have been their lead story for months and months, right?  Well, shoot, they can’t win without the hall of famer.  He’s been so good the last few years. VIKINGS

DENVER BRONCOS (-3) at Oakland Raiders

Saj: I know they’re at home but three points might not be enough for the Raiders.  Darren McFadden might be an amazing athlete but it will take him a few games to get adjusted.  And I’m not buying any JaMarcus Russell stock just yet.  It’s a recession and I’d rather just stay out of the market.  BRONCOS

Ian: If you see either set of arrogant fans in the next few days, make something very clear to them: Nobody cares about their teams anymore.  They’re irrelevant.  They’re also-rans.  Look for Russell to already pass Cutler on the list of barely desireable NFL quarterbacks. RAIDERS

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